The Next Food Crisis? War, Fertiliser & El Niño | David Spratt

What happens when war, fertiliser shortages, extreme heat and El Niño collide?In this episode of ClimateGen, Nick Breeze speaks with climate analyst David Spratt about a potentially dangerous food-security crisis unfolding across the Indo-Pacific.David is the co-author of Recipe for Food Insecurity: War, Fertiliser and the El Niño, which examines what could happen when several systemic shocks occur at the same time: reduced fertiliser availability, lower crop plantings, extreme heat, drought and a powerful El Niño affecting some of the world's most important agricultural regions.Rice is at the centre of the concern. Much of Asia depends heavily on rice, while the international rice market is relatively small. A significant production shock could therefore have rapid consequences for prices and food availability.David draws a comparison with the wheat crisis of 2009–10, when simultaneous crop failures contributed to a dramatic rise in wheat prices in the Middle East and helped create conditions that fed into the Arab Spring.He is careful to stress that this is not a prediction, but a plausible scenario that governments should be preparing for.The conversation explores how food insecurity can interact with extreme heat, existing conflicts and political instability — and how a food and climate crisis could ultimately become a security crisis.We discuss:• Why El Niño could create exceptionally hot and dry conditions across Asia and Australia • The fertiliser crisis and why its effects could persist for years • Why rice is particularly vulnerable • The relationship between food prices, insecurity and social unrest • Lessons from the 2009–10 wheat crisis and the Arab Spring • How climate disruption can contribute to regional instability • Why governments need better climate-security intelligence and preparedness • The importance of resilience, adaptation and planning before crises arriveDavid Spratt is a climate analyst and researcher with the Australian Security Leaders Climate Group.This episode explores a plausible risk scenario — not a forecast.