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Podcast Episode

I Backed Over 4.5 Goals on EVERY Match for 2 Years… Here Are the Results

Betfair Trading Community Podcast··3 September 2026·15 min

About this episode

Send us Fan MailWhat happens if you back Over 4.5 Goals on every single football match?No filters.No picking the right leagues.No looking for obviously high-scoring teams.Just back Over 4.5 Goals every time and see what happens.In this podcast, I test exactly that across two full years of football data.We look at: The overall profit and loss  The strike rate  The average odds  The longest winning and losing runs  Which leagues performed best  Which leagues were absolute disasters  Whether a few simple filters could improve the results Over 4.5 Goals is an interesting market because the strike rate is much lower...But the odds are much bigger.So does that actually create an edge?Or is blindly backing five or more goals just a very fast way to destroy your bank?That is what the data tells us.If you want to test your own football trading ideas before risking real money, check out the Betfair Trading Community football backtesting software.Support the showSign up here: https://checkout.lightspeedstats.com/lightspeed-stats-football-stats/Twitter: @BetfairTC Website: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/betfairtradingcommunity