Is a September Fed hike off the table? The yen rescue. EM risks.

A jam-packed episode begins with Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joining David Wilder to discuss what a surprisingly weak US employment report means for expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Neil and David are then joined by Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann to unpack the implications of coordinated US-Japanese intervention to halt the yen's slide. They discuss everything from Prime Minister Takaichi's policy agenda and its impact on market perceptions of the currency to whether Scott Bessent's move was also intended to send a message to Beijing about an undervalued renminbi. Finally, Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach examines the latest update to our EM Financial Risk Indicators, highlighting where we see the greatest risks of a crisis and why, despite the recent energy shock, most emerging markets have remained remarkably resilient.Related contentHow worried should investors be about Takaichi’s policies? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/japan-economics-focus/how-worried-should-investors-be-about-takaichis-policiesYour questions on Japan’s markets answered https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/your-questions-japans-markets-answeredEM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2026) https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-financial-risk-monitor/em-financial-risk-monitor-jul-2026