Ep 13 - AI researchers expect AGI sooner w/ Katja Grace (Co-founder & Lead Researcher, AI Impacts)

We speak with Katja Grace. Katja is the co-founder and lead researcher at AI Impacts, a research group trying to answer key questions about the future of AI — when certain capabilities will arise, what will AI look like, how it will all go for humanity. We talk to Katja about: * How AI Impacts latest rigorous survey of leading AI researchers shows they've dramatically reduced their timelines to when AI will successfully tackle all human tasks & occupations. * The survey's methodology and why we can be confident in its results * Responses to the survey * Katja's journey into the field of AI forecasting * Katja's thoughts about the future of AI, given her long tenure studying AI futures and its impacts Hosted by Soroush Pour. Follow me for more AGI content: Twitter: https://twitter.com/soroushjp LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/soroushjp/ == Show links == -- Follow Katja -- * Website: https://katjagrace.com/ * Twitter: https://x.com/katjagrace -- Further resources -- * The 2023 survey of AI researchers views: https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/ai_timelines/predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines/ai_timeline_surveys/2023_expert_survey_on_progress_in_ai * AI Impacts: https://aiimpacts.org/ * AI Impacts' Substack: https://blog.aiimpacts.org/ * Joe Carlsmith on Power Seeking AI: https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.13353   * Abbreviated version: https://joecarlsmith.com/2023/03/22/existential-risk-from-power-seeking-ai-shorter-version * Fragile World hypothesis by Nick Bostrom: https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf Recorded Feb 22, 2024