Who is to Blame? / Texas Longhorns LIVE 123

Texas Longhorns LIVE 123 — “Who is to Blame?” Hosts: Matthew Miller & Thomas Bresee (Tommy) Network: TexasVOCFB / Voice of College Football (sponsored by FanDuel) Opening & Betting Line (≈0:00–1:30) Texas is a 10.5-point favorite at home vs. Florida (FanDuel). Hosts note this is essentially the same number they faced against Oklahoma, with the home field adding roughly three points. Tommy: The matchup favors Texas if they avoid self-inflicted wounds. Florida’s offense is unlikely to “figure things out” against Texas; Vegas appears concerned the SEC has sorted out Florida. Miller: 10.5 is fair. This may be Texas’s hardest offensive test so far, but also the weakest Power Four defense they’ve faced. Florida’s front four is solid; the back seven is not. Core Debate: Arch or Sark? (≈1:30–21:00) Both hosts land primarily on Steve Sarkisian, with a smaller share on Arch Manning. Miller’s split (≈70–80% Sark / 20–30% Arch): Sark’s Texas offense has generally regressed statistically across most categories over his tenure. Sark chose both Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers. The best offense of the Sark era was under Casey Thompson; the best running game featured Tom Herman recruits (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Brooks). Both QBs may have been somewhat overhyped. Quinn was more limited physically/by injuries and appeared to grasp the playbook better. Arch has the physical tools but struggles with processing (“in between the ears”). A coach should adapt the scheme to the personnel rather than forcing the preferred system. Sark has not done this enough. Under-center snaps have been particularly problematic for Arch (harder to dissect the defense; limited space when the center is beaten). Suggests limiting under-center to a small handful of trusted plays and living in shotgun/pistol. Last six games of 2025, Arch posted the highest QBR in the country while primarily in 10/11 personnel spread. Out-of-pocket throws have generally been a strength (until the recent interception). Tommy’s view (≈65% Sark / 35% Arch): Sark is an elite offensive coach who has not put it together consistently enough. He built this roster. The offensive line, wide receivers, and portal running backs fit a spread offense better than the 12-personnel pro-style system Sark prefers. The current tight ends are not strong receiving threats (Nick Townsend lacks explosiveness; others have limited production). Arch’s issues: poor pocket management (stepping into pressure, leaving clean pockets), staring down receivers and failing to throw (missed open Amari Winston on the final interception; missed Cam Coleman on a sack), and not fully trusting his eyes, the line, or the system. Positive moments exist (e.g., the Cam Coleman touchdown on the move, the Ryan Wingo touchdown read). There are dialed-up winners that Arch is not converting. Sark has a responsibility both to develop Arch within the preferred system and to adapt when necessary to win now. Evidence shows what Arch does well (pre-snap recognition, athleticism, out-of-pocket play); the offense should lean into 10/11 personnel spread more heavily to build confidence over the next few games before potentially blending concepts later. Arch is the clear team leader; benching him would risk locker-room issues and is not justified on pure talent/availability grounds relative to the alternatives. Shared points: There is a fundamental disconnect between what Sark wants to call and what Arch (and much of the current personnel) executes well. Talent is not the primary problem. Multiple receivers, most of the offensive line, and other pieces project as NFL talent. The answers exist; execution and scheme fit are lagging. Manning’s last name creates both advantages (NIL, expectations) and disadvantages (outsize scrutiny, e.g., national articles). What Can Be Fixed This Season (≈21:50–34:00) Scheme/personnel usage is the biggest in-season lever. The running game has been average-to-bad since Bijan and Brooks left (line, scheme, backs, or combination). More spread looks should improve the passing game and create space for playmakers. Statistical contrast cited (via CJ Vogel / Inside Texas breakdowns): 10 personnel has been far more efficient recently than 12 personnel. Current snap share is heavy on 11 (~56%) and 12 (~31–32%), with limited 10 and 20 personnel. Recommendation: shift 10–12% of the 12-personnel snaps toward 10 personnel and modest increases in 20 personnel (two-back looks with Cooper, Brown, Niblett, Smothers, etc.). Best current playmakers to lean on: Cam Coleman, Ryan Wingo, Emmitt Mosley, Jermaine Bishop, Derek Cooper, Hollywood Smothers, Malik Brown. Get them on the field more; the tight ends are not currently among the top 11 playmakers. Offensive line: Connor Robertson is a liability in pass protection against elite fronts (eyes/feet too slow; vulnerable to stunts). Dylan Sikorski at center and Lawrence Seymour at guard is worth exploring for better pass pro in a spread look. Kyle Flood is not the primary issue. Special teams (Jeff Banks): Disastrous so far (punt return/block issues, kickoff out-of-bounds, poor return production, penalties, missed tackles). Not fixable with a mid-season coordinator change. Play simple and boring the rest of the way (no tricks, kick down the middle, tackle well, limit big plays and penalties). Goal is net-neutral. Penalties: Offensive line is relatively clean (only five total on the line, some in garbage time). Problems are elsewhere (PIs, roughing the passer, unsportsmanlike, special teams). Clean those up and the team improves significantly in penalty rankings. Coaching changes (Banks, potential OC help next year) are more likely offseason items. Sark has a lot on his plate; a dedicated play-caller could free him for sideline management and adjustments (DeBoer-style). Next year’s QB (if Arch leaves) may fit Sark’s preferred system better. Florida Preview & Keys (≈34:00–end) Must-win for both. Florida coming off blowout losses to Missouri and South Carolina; Texas off the Oklahoma loss. Key for Texas defense: Stop Jaden Baugh (#13). Florida’s offense is heavily dependent on him. In their four early wins he averaged ~7.2 YPC on high volume; in the two losses he was held to 72 yards at 2.9 YPC. Texas’s run defense has been excellent. Aaron Filo is not yet a consistent threat to carry the offense. Key for Texas offense: Protect up front and attack the secondary/linebackers. Florida’s back seven is a clear weakness (high passing yards allowed on the road). Arch should be able to find rhythm and volume (hosts project 250–350+ yards possible). Scheme adjustments (more 10/11/20 personnel) would open even bigger windows. Historical note: Texas is 6-0 after non-season-ending losses since 2023, winning by an average of roughly 15 points and scoring 20+ in the first half in most of those games. Bounce-back opportunities have produced strong starts. Florida’s secondary has been exploited by other quarterbacks; Texas has the receiving talent to do the same. Score predictions: Miller: Texas 34–23 (covers). Tommy: Texas 31–20. Expects some scheme adaptation but not a full overhaul; range of outcomes is wide (could be a comfortable win or a tight one depending on execution and self-inflicted issues). Closing Notes Hosts emphasize the next three games offer favorable defensive matchups and a chance to install more spread concepts, build Arch’s confidence, and get the offense consistent before tougher tests (e.g., LSU at home). Call-in show and postgame coverage planned for later in the week. Standard CTA: like, subscribe, comment with score predictions. Overall takeaway from the episode: The offense’s struggles are real but fixable in the short term primarily through scheme and personnel adjustments that better match Arch Manning and the current skill-position talent. Sark bears the larger share of responsibility as the play-caller and roster builder. Florida presents a realistic bounce-back opportunity if Texas stops the run and attacks the secondary. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.