Could Fighting in Ethiopia Spark Regional War in the Horn of Africa?

Fighting has broken out between the Ethiopian government and an alliance of 7 opposition groups. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Egypt, and Sudan of backing the rebel alliance, though officials from all three governments have denied this. This week, Aaron Stanley and Dr. Yonas Ashine Demisse discuss how we got to this place, how shifting geopolitics are shaping conflict dynamics, and what the most likely trajectory of the war is. Yonas Ashine Demisse, "Rethinking Pax Africana in Multipolar Disorder: A Genealogical Return to Pan-African Futures," Security Context, August 10, 2026. Aaron Stanley, "After the Supermajority: Ethiopia’s Trajectory Following the 2026 Election," CSIS, June 18, 2026. Oge Onubogu, "In the Shadows of the Iran War: The Horn of Africa," CSIS Into Africa, March 26, 2026.