Podcast Episode
🚨 AI DIDN’T BREAK. THE CAPITAL STACK DID.

About this episode
AI demand is still screaming. Credit markets have simply decided that enormous demand does not give borrowers a free pass on leverage.🔥 PPI jumped 1.3% in September and 6.3% year over year.📉 CoreWeave bonds are trading at yields around 15% plus, even while the company points to roughly $104B of committed revenue backlog.💻 TSMC just reported roughly $46.7B of quarterly revenue and nearly $24B of profit, with management still extremely bullish on AI demand.🏦 Meanwhile, Liberty Mutual and Elda River are targeting $500M of senior energy and infrastructure credit, exactly the kind of institutional capital AI infrastructure borrowers increasingly want access to.🏠 Mortgage rates remain around 7.45% for the thirty year fixed, purchase applications fell 4% last week, and adjustable rate mortgages now represent 10.5% of applications.🏢 In CRE, the CMBS special servicing rate just hit 11.49%, its highest level since 2013.💰 And private capital is still buying. EQT is acquiring Stockbridge, while GTCR and Elliott announced a $6.1B acquisition of CCC Intelligent Solutions.The takeaway is simple: AI infrastructure is not failing. The market is getting more sophisticated about who should own it, who should finance it, and what the collateral and contracts are actually worth.Cheap money rewards narratives. Expensive money rewards underwriting.Until tomorrow, be the best human you can be.
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