Warren Sharp’s 2026 NFL Predictions: Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams & More

Every NFL broadcast puts third-down conversion rate on the screen. Warren Sharp says that is the wrong number. What predicts winning is how often a team avoids third down at all, and almost nobody says it out loud. Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/R/WINGO Disclaimer: 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information Sponsored by Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/r/WINGO Use code WINGO and get $25 when you trade $25. Warren left a decade-long engineering career to model football full time, has consulted for NFL teams under NDA, and has published his betting record every year since 2006. This conversation is about the machinery underneath it. The core of it: early-down efficiency and explosive plays have to be balanced against each other, not optimized separately. Sack avoidance is drastically underrated, and quarterbacks control far more of it than offensive lines get blamed for. His line is that interceptions are game changers and sacks are drive changers, and he has the drive-scoring numbers to show what a single sack does to a possession. On strength of schedule, he does not use last year's records at all. He explains what he uses instead, why the betting market does the work for you, and why 2026 is the year that matters most, with ten new head coaches and a wave of new coordinators changing what every team is trying to do. Then the teams. Why he thinks Houston finishes first in the AFC South and what changed on the offensive line. Why he bet against Cincinnati last year and is not doing it again. What the Cowboys defense has to become, and it is a lower bar than you would think. Why he believes the hype around the Rams and still will not put money on them, which is a distinction most people never make. What Denver's play calling change means for sack rate. And where Kansas City actually stands. Trey brings his own argument too, that the hardest games to win come in September because nobody knows they are bad yet, and gets it tested against the data. Warren is giving Wingo Network viewers the full 2026 preview book, the $34.99 PDF, free. Details at the end of the video and in the pinned comment. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.