Follow the incentives: FlowTrader on trading Trump headlines, oil and Iran

FlowTrader sits down with Sokio in the studio for an IRL episode on trading a market that moves on headlines. Nine years in, from crypto-miner stocks in 2017–18 to high-leverage perps, he now keeps trades to three to five days and avoids holding exposure over the weekend.  We get into his macro framework and why debasement made gold one of his best trades, Bitcoin as an overflow bucket for excess capital, rising yields against the AI build-out, and why he reads every Trump headline for its incentive rather than its content. On oil, he explains why he doesn't buy reports of Hormuz flows nearing pre-war levels, and why refined products and diesel are the real constraint.  The second half looks at the Iran war on purely economic terms: decentralised command, China's incentives, Syria as the early signal, trade routes, and a 2009 Brookings options paper he says reads differently in hindsight. We close on why he thinks Bitcoin is now an institutional asset tied to America's success.00:00 Intro and Flow's path into trading 02:14 Short-term trades, the macro framework and gold 05:11 What Bitcoin is right now 06:42 Rising yields, the AI build-out and the wall of worry 10:12 Headline trading and the oil math 14:55 Who has the upper hand in the Iran war 18:29 Syria, trade routes and US strategy 23:38 The "leave it to Bibi" playbook 25:38 Bitcoin is a bet on America