Another Judder Moment as Trump roils the West.

Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 12th, 2026“Be careful if America is your enemy. Be terrified if they are your friend.”Consequences spread like ripples on a pond. Trump lobbed the bloody great rock of the Iran War into the global economy earlier this year. Now the risks he raised are converging. Inflation, Rates, Trade, Geopolitics and Conflict were thrown into stark relief over the weekend as Trump further roiled markets, and climate risks will be extra spice. How this ends is unclear… Key takeaways:The consequences of the Iran war are escalating in geopolitics, rising conflict risk, inflation and trade, all putting markets under potential pressure.The Super El-Nino threatens a further inflationary spike and could deepen trade instabilities.Trump’s comments and US policy have further undermined the confidence and stability of the Western Alliance.A Democrat victory in next month’s US Midterms may not solve anything except to ratchet up US political uncertainty.Meanwhile, the left-wing in France is proposing to use “Zonk Theory” to manage down France’s unsustainable debt burden. What would work in the UK won’t work in Europe. This morning’s photo is a container ship She-Who-Is-Mrs Blain snapped while we were sailing over the weekend. It was headed into Southampton, one of the UK’s largest ports. It’s practically empty. There are fewer containers on it than I’ve ever seen in 25 years sailing in the Solent. It may well be it’s come empty from Rotterdam to fill up – but given the state of UK exports… that’s unlikely. Global Trade has shifted. The whole point of container shipping is to stack ‘em high to keep costs down. Since the Iran War kicked off the cost of sending a container from China to Europe has tripled. That is a trade shock the world has not yet fully felt. Throw in shipping bottlenecks (and the possibility the Panama Canal will restrict passage because of drought) … and the outlook is scary.Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story.If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…