How This Multi-Millionaire Investor Spots Billion-Dollar Ideas | Term Sheet

Over 3,000 venture capital firms are operating in the U.S. today. Lux Capital's co-founder Josh Wolfe thinks more than half of them won't survive the decade. He has spent 25 years making calls nobody else would make, backing Anduril before defense tech was a category and surgical robotics before it had a market. Now, fresh off a $1.5 billion fundraise, he's warning that the AI boom is headed for a crash that will wipe out trillions in market cap and take most of the venture industry with it. Fortune's Allie Garfinkle sits down with Wolfe to find out who survives the shakeout, where the defense tech bubble breaks, and the predictions he's making for 2027.  0:00 The VC Extinction Has Already Started 0:50 Hot IPO Summer: SpaceX's $2 Trillion Debut 2:05 The VC Who Bets Against Everyone 2:26 Josh Wolfe: Half of VC Firms Are Going Extinct 5:24 Why Lux Plays the Middle 6:14 Turning Science Fiction Into Billions 6:43 Star Wars Inspired a Billion-Dollar Exit 8:41 Real-Life X-Men Is Already Here 9:41 How He Spots Fake Science in Seconds 11:19 Is Venture Capital Eating Itself? 13:59 The AI Crash: Trillions Wiped Out 16:55 Why a Fruit Fly Could Beat the Big AI Labs 17:21 Soon Everything You Say Is Recorded? 19:57 The Defense Bet Nobody Would Make 22:51 Kill Chains and Moral Precision 27:45 Wolfe's 2027 Prediction: A 15% Nasdaq Drop 30:41 Why He's Still Betting on the Future Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices