The Wheel You Can't See

What are you really betting on when you trade an option? Bill Johnson argues that it's not simply whether a stock goes up or down. It's how much uncertainty the market has priced in—and how much actually unfolds before expiration. Using a roulette wheel that can change while it spins, Bill explains the difference between historical, implied, and realized volatility. He also shows why an option priced at 40% volatility isn't automatically expensive just because the stock's recent volatility was 25%. In this episode of Thinking In Options, learn why past volatility can't settle a trade about the future—and what an option's price can and can't tell you. Subscribe for more options education with Bill Johnson.