The AI Trade Has a Problem | Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba and Aahan Menon on What Could Derail It

In this episode of Last Call, we break down one of the most confusing market backdrops in years: AI-driven earnings optimism, rising oil and inflation risk, stretched options positioning, and the market impact of a potential SpaceX IPO. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Aahan Menon, Ben Hunt, and Brent Kochuba to examine what macro data, political narratives, options flows, and index mechanics are saying about where markets could go next. Topics Covered:Why markets are looking through war, oil shocks and valuation concernsHow earnings estimates are driving sector performance in the AI tradeAahan Menon on growth, inflation, oil prices and macro regime signalsWhy demand destruction from higher energy prices can take longer than investors expectWhat a rising growth and rising inflation regime can mean for stocks, commodities and bondsBen Hunt on World War AI and the collision between AI market optimism and political backlashWhy opposition to AI data centers could become a major market and election issueBrent Kochuba on call buying, implied volatility and signs of options market frothWhy CORE 1M and skew signals may be warning of a downside spasmHow the SpaceX IPO could affect index flows, active managers and mega-cap stocksTimestamps: 00:00 Intro: AI, inflation and options risk in one market 05:40 Earnings estimates, AI optimism and why fundamentals still matter 10:31 Aahan Menon on a difficult macro backdrop 15:29 Why energy shocks and demand destruction take time 20:24 Why inflation can persist even if the oil shock eases 24:47 Ben Hunt on World War AI and the AI resource build-out 30:00 AI CapEx as the pillar holding up market optimism 34:00 The political backlash against AI data centers 38:00 Why data center opposition matters for markets 42:09 Why price action can distort the AI narrative 47:48 CORE 1M, stretched call prices and downside spasm risk 52:00 Why Nasdaq options are priced for upside crashes 56:11 Index rules, human judgment and the SpaceX IPO 01:00:34 The free float problem and rebalancing pressure 01:05:22 Space data centers, valuation and the size of the AI opportunity