Gold & Oil Are Signaling What's Next for Inflation and Rates | David Ranson

Are stocks really rising, or is the dollar just falling? Economist David Ranson explains why he measures wealth in gold instead of dollars, and what gold and oil prices are signaling right now about inflation, interest rates, bonds, and the stock market. Drawing on more than a century of market data, Ranson walks through the indicators he uses to position across asset classes and how well they've forecast past turning points. In this interview:▸ Why gold is a better deflator than CPI for measuring real returns▸ How stocks have actually performed when priced in gold▸ The surprising way oil prices predict stock market moves▸ Using gold and oil to forecast inflation and interest rates▸ Emerging markets, currency surprises, and where the opportunities are▸ How fiscal insolvency affects the price of gold▸ His outlook for gold, inflation, the US dollar, and bond yields over the next year ⏱️ CHAPTERS00:00 Introduction02:26 Asset class positioning & confidence levels05:37 Why you should measure stocks in real terms07:50 Why gold is a better deflator than CPI08:24 Stocks deflated by gold: the historical record09:35 100 years of gold and oil prices11:01 Gold as a safe haven and inflation indicator12:27 How oil prices behave over the long term13:25 How oil prices predict stock market moves15:51 Forecasting stock returns with oil and gold17:40 Real vs. nominal stock market performance18:22 What gold and oil say about bonds20:15 Forecasting inflation and interest rates22:24 Is inflation accelerating or decelerating?23:55 How accurate has the model been?24:45 Emerging markets & currency surprises28:16 Investment strategies for emerging markets29:23 Outlook: gold, inflation, and the US dollar30:36 Outlook: bond prices and yields next year31:02 Closing thoughts 👤 ABOUT DAVID RANSON R. David Ranson is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and the President and Director of Research at HCWE Inc. (formerly H.C. Wainwright & Company). He holds an M.A. and B.Sc. degrees from Queen’s College, Oxford, and an M.B.A. in finance and a Ph.D. in business economics from the University of Chicago.  🔔 Subscribe for more conversations on markets and the economy: https://youtube.com/@murraysabrinpodcast?si=4c5108DVR4mYTQljWebsite link : https://mafiusa.com/ ⚠️ This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Do your own research or consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.