Over the Hedge: Bayesian Reasoning and the Art of Changing Your Mind

What happens when the world changes but your mental model does not? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores Bayesian reasoning through the unlikely lens of the 2006 animated film Over the Hedge. When a group of woodland animals discovers that a giant hedge has appeared across their familiar environment, they are forced to confront a problem that intelligence professionals, leaders and decision makers face every day: how do you respond when new evidence challenges what you thought you knew? Angela examines the difference between stubbornly clinging to an outdated assessment and overreacting to a single dramatic development. Bayesian thinking offers a middle ground, helping us update our beliefs in proportion to the evidence rather than abandoning the entire map every time something unexpected appears. Join the Sibylline Media mailing list: https://mailchi.mp/sibylline.co.uk/podcastsignupFollow Sibylline on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sibyllineltd/?hl=enFollow Sibylline on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/sibylline-ltd/Watch Sibylline on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@sibyllineTVFor more information: https://www.sibylline.co.uk